all right. very quick wrap on what the president had to say in detroit. john harwood? >> nothing new in the remarks. he's following a formula the white house has become to believe in. public heat. >> i'm sure you'll have more coming up all night. "closing bell" with bill griffith and some australian is next. everybody's at the big board today. welcome to "closing bell." i'm bill griffith. yes, we're at the new york stock exchange as well looking to open the week on a winning note as washington continues to look for some kind of a deal on the fiscal cliff. >> some kind being the operative words. hello everyone, again. maria is going to be back tomorrow but in the meantime you're stuck with me. let's see what the markets are up to today.

the dow holding marginally above water. as for the nasdaq and the s&p, let's get a check on those two as well. they've been kind of positive today, but not superbly so. at least it is a positive start to the trading week. >> now, forget about the number of days -- shopping days until christmas. we're talking about 13 and a half trading days after today how to position your money ahead of what might or might not happen with the fiscal cliff deal. are we ready to go? let's find out how you should be investing. everybody's looking at me like i should not be saying something right now. okay. everybody's there. mandy? >> okay. joining us now we have a cast of thousands. dan mcmahon from raymond james. nathan backrat. and our very own rick santelli. thank you for joining us today.

nathan, let's start with you. so 13 and a half trading days left. what do you do with those to make it worth it? >> y better have the right allocation to begin with. in the meantime guess what's gotten cheaper? europe. >> germany and france at two-week highs last week. >> there's a few countries over there. i like the relative value there. they've got a printing press. they're going to open that. what i learned is you don't fight the tape and don't fight a bailout. i've got about 30% off this country -- outside of this country. and added 10% in emerging markets. now i think that we've had a bloodless revolution again in china, i think it's a great place. look at emerging markets. better value while you wait around. >> and they've done well over the last year. it was just they've been the silent gain. you haven't quite realized they've been doing so well. >> i like it.

i wouldn't rush into anything. if you hid cash on the side, what a good time getting in. >> this market has stopped reacting on a minute by minute basis to all the prognostications out of washington on the fiscal cliff. what do you make of that? are we becoming complacent? are we immune? what are you talking about on the floor? >> we just had the president speak. nothing there. china numbers tomorrow. then germany. maybe nothing there. i think everybody wants to fast forward to tuesday. they want to see what happens after operation twist expires. they want to see what bernanke said at 2:00. that's what we're looking at. >> we're always waiting around for something to happen. and if you wait around and climb this wall of worry, right, don't you sometimes miss out? >> i think you're right. and i think that we do expect something here this wednesday. and if we don't get that $45 billion a month program that

actually creates money supply, i think you might see a little selloff. but i think it's priced in at this point. so i think we do have a big question mark here. but it may be answered this week. i think that's what traders are focused on. it's a big last three days after a quiet two days this week. >> i want to ask rick about that in a moment. you're in the camp that any deal of the fiscal cliff will be positive for the market at this point. right? >> any type of rhetoric coming out of washington, d.c. has put a bid to the tape. so i think the hopes that people were going to have something long-term and really concrete coming out of d.c. have long since gone given we only have a fortnight to get something done. so any type of positive, just get us passed it. you don't want to kick the can down the road like they did in europe. but i think some sense that they are going to come up with something. >> how do you invest regardless of the outcome? >> right now -- well, you know,

here we go. i'm always the bear, right? i would be very cautious right now. because we have some concerns in regard to some preannouncements that might come around. you got a lot of cash in profit coffers. you can't just keep playing extra dividends. and so at some point you have to show revenues in growth. there's not a lot of evidence of that right now. >> in the meantime, rick santelli, you've got a big weekend coming up. the fed meeting. lots of data. what are you setting yourselves up for here? >> you're right. we have $66 billion starting out. and the first day of a two-day fed meeting. our last meeting was the 24th of october. you'll see a charts of 10s, 30s going back to that meeting. and into a treasury purchase program, virtually everybody

expects that. and the dollar actually is a little bit higher than the last meeting. and most likely they will still sell the dollars based off qe 4 and the dollar has done well against the yen in particular. but i wouldn't say one final thing that we're talking about fiscal cliff in the context of people in the middle class, upper class, taxes, i get all that. but i think we're also going to have to talk more about ben bernanke. if we go off the fiscal cliff, it shows the irony of how the feds balance sheets isn't addressing the problem. it isn't addressing unemployment. one hand of the government is trying to do something that isn't working and the other hand is shooting in the foot. i think this is going to be interesting listening to bernanke on wednesday. >> ben has already put it out there there's not a lot the fed can do if we go off the fiscal cliff. you speak to a lot of smart people, rick santelli. >> and he's a smart person as

well. >> to feel it's going to be a year of strong dollar or weaker dollar. i ask this because so many companies during their latest earning season have pointed to the strong dollar as a real problem for them if they're a multinational. >> i think the relationship between all the developed countries using printing presses like the dollar, yen, euro, are close to levels and ranges we'll see next year. i think in some of the asian currencies we need to pay more attention to. you can only swim so far in a round pool without banging the edges. that's what you get when you look at the dollar versus the yen or euro. >> thank you. thanks for joining us today. see you guys later. let's get to this big move in natural gas today. sharon epperson is live with big declan. >> big decline. we're at a six-week low for natural gas. the fact it's below the $3.50 level. and of course there are a couple of factors.

the fact it's over 60 degrees here in new york and warmer than normal across the east coast. that's part of it. but those temperatures are expected to stay for awhile. at least a week or two. so that is something that is bearish for natural gas. ed add to that the potentially small increase in weekly storage levels when the report comes out from the energy department this week. that is a another bear signal. and barclays is saying look for around $3.20. back to yo pu. >> warm weather forecasts through end of next week. we like that very much. thank you very much. where were we now? let's see. we're heading towards the close here with the dow up 24 points. again, this market feels very much like a wait and see kind of market. i think sarge has it right. they're waiting for the fed meeting this week. >> we've barely moved in either direction. after the break, we have the legendary investor for you. jack bogle. he's going to be here with his

stunning warn. damaging to society as a whole. why? we're going to ask him. plus we'll get his take on a lot more than that. he's worth staying tuned for. >> amen to that. then did you get your bids in? today is d-day for anyone wanting to purchase hostess assets. we'll bring you the latest and find out what has this ding dong so steamed on "saturday night live." did you see that? >> i did not. looked like a good one though. then after the bell we're going to dig into insider trading. find out why big players are deciding the reward outweighs the risk and why this could hurt every investor that is until the feds crack down. americans are o work hard for a better future.

since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they've been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength of a global financial leader. the heart of a one-to-one relationship. together for your future. ♪ together for your future. we are gathered here today to celebrate the union of tim and laura. it's amazing how appreciative people are when you tell them they could save a lot of money on their car insurance by switching to geico...they may even make you their best man. may i have the rings please? ah, helzberg diamonds. nice choice, mate. ...and now in the presence of these guests we join this loving couple. oh dear... geico. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance.

group's founder it is not the fiscal cliff that's the biggest threat tho the markets right now. it's the overwhelming amount of speculation. >> he says it's crowding out long-term investment and doing damage not just to the economy and the markets but to society as a whole. he joins us now. we're always pleased to welcome back into this cnbc exclusive to talk about it, mr. jack bogle.

the founder of the vanguard group, author, all those good things out there. welcome back, my friend. >> thank you, bill. thank you very much. and hi, mandy. >> hi there. >> speculation. let's talk about that and the role it has played. you know, the s.e.c. would like and some of the portions of dodd frank would like to get rid of proprietary trading and some of that has gone away, but you still have the fast-moving trades that hit the streets these days. is that what you're talking about? the hyperfast trading that goes on? >> that's a big part of it, bill, but it's not all. when you think about our financial system and i think we talked a bit about this before. the role as the financial side of our system, if you will, is to direct capital to its highest and best and most profitable uses. how much do we do of that a year? around $250 billion of additional equity capital, ipos and so on.

$250 billion. we do $33 trillion worth of trading. which is basically betting on the psychology of the market. makes no sense. >> what would you like to see done about it? >> we trade it with each other. >> what would you like to see done about it, sir? what would you propose? >> there's a bunch of things. first we could have a transaction tax on trades. very small but enough to slow it down a bit. second we could have a tax on very short-term capital gains. whether in an interesting nuance whether they are made by tax exempt institutions or taxable investors. and what people have lost sight of is almost 70% of all the stock held in america is held by financial institutions and not individuals. we've got to reappraise their role. and finally -- >> go ahead, jack. >> just to complete the thought by saying finally we need some kind of a federal statute, i think, of fiduciary duty for all

managers. focuses on long-term, prudent investing. relatively low turnover and low costs. and putting the interest of the clients of these investment managers first. >> you know, they talked about a financial transaction tax in europe and got their heads handed to them as part of the negotiations on their debt. it's not even being talked about in this country as part of the fiscal cliff. what should the transition to the fiscal cliff here? are you sleeping nights thinking about all this? or how are you viewing what's going on in washington right now? >> people ask me what keeps me awake at night. i said nothing is important to keep me awake at night. that doesn't really advance the ball, one might say. you know, i can see the outlines of the fiscal cliff being avoided right now. reading a little bit behind the scenes. all i'm doing is paying attention to what's going on out there. i don't have the inside information or anything. but it has to be done.

it has to be fixed. and i assume it will be. and i often quote churchill. maybe even on your show once, bill. that said americans always do the right thing but only after they've tried everything else. so we've tried everything else. that leaves us for the right thing which is some tax increases and some cuts in long-term benefits, medicare, social security, and so on. >> in which case and i hate saying this because it obviously shoots ourselves in the foot. are you advocating turn off the tv, turn off the noise, keep your investment goals focused and don't listen to the vagaries of what's coming out of washington? >> i would not listen to the vagaries of what's coming out of washington nor would i listen to the vagaries of what goes on in the stock market. everything goes up and down each day. and today it's natural gas prices. and tomorrow it'll be something else and day after will be something else. if you could just discipline yourself as an investor. i'm speaking now to the

individual investors of our k n count country. don't pay a lot of attention to the short-term noise. focus on the long-term. you'll save yourselves a lot of transaction cost. and just realize that in the markets out there, the financial system is a drag on market return. because we're trading with one another, for heaven's sake. trades don't happen outside of the system. if you trade with one another, one wins, the other loses. except the man in the middle. the man is like lawyer in litigation. >> i quote you all time. when people ask me is buy and hold dead i always tell them what jack bogle says and it depends on what you buy. your line is buy right and sit tight. but with all the speculation that's going on, all the trading, the amount of money that you talked about a moment ago with all the trading out there and the volatility that

causes, is it still a valid statement to the individual investor to buy something and then don't even peek at the monthly, quarterly statements that come from your broker? which is something you advocate. >> yes, well that would be absurd if i didn't tell you what to buy. and what i would tell you to buy is not a stock that's going up or a future or a commodity or whatever else it might be. i'd say own the entire u.s. stock market. or if you wish, with some seasoning from the emerges markets or the developed markets of the world. own the market, if you will. because that way you know you will capture almost all the market's return. you will not capture the market's return if you trade with one another because of that hump taken out of your market by wall street. >> do you have some specific advice for our viewers going into 2013? how would you invest for 2013? >> i would invest in 2013 the

same way i did in 2012. and i'd invest the way in 2014 the same way in 2013 sfp. >> so the same thing is going to work over and over again? >> there are a lot of things that are going to surprise us in any period. always do, always have, always will. but if we just hang in there, get our asset allocation right, you're going to want some bonds. even at today's terrible interest rates. so today i'd lean toward corporate bonds or corporate bond index rather than government bonds. but some bonds, some stocks, general rule of them more bonds and less stocks as you get older. and more stocks and less bonds, very little bonds, when you start right out of school. >> would you pay $1700 for gold right now? >> well, if you want gold, i always pay the going rate. i don't know how to guess about

prices. the thing that has always bothered me about gold is it has no value-creating unit. underlying common stocks are earnings and dividends. underlying bond returns are interest coupons. underlying gold returns are nothing. there's nothing -- there's no there there. so it's a complete speculation on price. i'm well aware of the monetary hazards out there in the world. if someone says i'd rather take that into account than ignore it, i'd say put in 5% in gold if you have to or want to or need to. and you'll have a little bit of protection if all my conservative advice doesn't work. at least you'll have some gold left. but a worrisome thing because of the lack of underlying value. >> i hate to put you on the spot with an individual stock recommendation, but everybody talks about apple these days as the big bohemoth.

what's your thought? >> i don't take a look at individual stocks. it could go up, it could go down. >> do you use apple products? do you endorse apple products in your personal space? >> i certainly do. i love them. i was given an ipad for christmas. i love it. >> there you go. jack bogle using computers, technology. i love that. good stuff. you look well, my friend. thank you for joining us. always good to see you. >> always good to be with you guys. thank you. >> take care. jack bogle joining us today from pennsylvania. all right. he's the real deal. if you don't know who jack bogle is, google him. buy his books. great wisdom on investing. the bias seems to be to the upside as we head towards the close. the dow up 23 points right now. >> and after the break we'll be talking burgers. be if you could only eat one

burger, one for the rest of your life would it be mcdonald's or burger king or wendy's? forget that. what if you could only own one of those two stocks. which would it be? the battle of the burger companies up next. be sure to check out cnbc's list of 2012 predictions that didn't come true. number seven on that was a double dip recession here in the united states. although widely anticipated by many economists, it didn't happen. at least not this year. what about next year? stay tuned. help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...

and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. made a retirement plan, they considered all her assets, even those held elsewhere, giving her the confidence to pursue all her goals. when you want a financial advisor who sees the whole picture, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. you won't take our future. aids affects us all. even babies. chevron is working to stop mother-to-child transmission. our employees and their families are part of the fight. and we're winning. at chevron nigeria, we haven't had a reported case in 12 years. aids is strong. aids is strong. but we are stronger. and aids... ♪ aids is going to lose. aids is going to lose. ♪

shares of mcdonald's moving higher today after a november sales numbers came in way above expectations and its chief rival burger king also having a nice day. forget which is the better burger. the whopper versus the whatever burger from mcdonald's. the big mac, thank you very much. i knew that. we're asking which has the best stock right now. steve cortez with veracruz, and jim sanderson with detwiler fenton. would you buy that here? >> i think mcdonald's is the better investment of the two. it's had a good run. good day today. i do think investors should be interested. i want to point out a few things. it's very a bad year. there's been a lot of negativity

about mcdonald's on the year. but if we pull back and take a longer term view and you look back a decade, you see mcdonald's has been an incredible performer. both outright and in the market. it's done well in go go market and crisis markets. the second point i would make that i think is significant for long-term investors, if you believe in the dogs of the dow approach, those dow components that have done the worst on that year and bet on them to outperform, a reshuffling of the stocks. historically that's been a good strategy i think is for long-term investor prudent. based on that comparison because mcdonald's has so underperformed the dow this year, i believe that in 2013, we will see that rotation of money out of the winning dow stocks into the losing ones that like mcdonald's have a solid ten year track record. >> jim, you're cautious on

mcdonald's. why? >> it's more related to what we're hearing about burger king. you've got a company burger king that's been in the process of turning itself around. the most recent checks we're seeing burger king continues to gain strength and momentum. i think their november traffic levels were improved over october. october was good for them. i think for mcdonald's i think november is better. but october was a stumble. we don't know what's going on with mcdonald's in the u.s. i want to take a more conservative approach, get more confidence that mcdonald's is really maintaining, stabilizing. december of last year was a very strong comp month for mcdonald's. i think they've got a lot of work to do in the quarter. and at the same time burger king is gaining momentum. i think burger king is coming off a turnaround and the company management has been successful in turning that franchise around. there's a lot more upside opportunity in 2013. i could go through a number of reasons for that. with the remodel program and with the international franchise

opportunity. >> jim, i will admit. burger king has done well lately. i don't have a lot negative to say about burger king particularly now they got rid of the creepy mascot they were using on their commercials. that was the worst since mcdonald's had the hamburglar. but looking at burger king, my problem with it is twofold here. this stock has already had an incredible run. i think it's quite overbought here. and fundamentally secondly you mentioned evaluation. you are paying up for burger king. it's a levered bet on growth because it is trading at a ratio well into the 20s. where mcdonald's is in line with the mid-teens. i think it's a much more speculati speculative. >> we've got to go at this point but good stuff. and of course now we're all hungry. thank you for joining us today. we'll see you later. okay. this day the dow is up by about 30 points. it's not really making any

records here. and of course we're counting down towards the bell. ahead of that, google used tax havens to escape $2 billion in taxes worldwide. the catch here is it's not illegal. why all the fuss? after the break we'll decide if this is a good move for google and you the investor. plus are smart phone apps invading privacy? the government is investigating that charge. we'll have the story. then we'll bring you the latest on the quest to save the twinkie. and what about the ding dong? just as important, right? all coming up. >> what's up, seth? >> thank you for coming ding dong. >> wow. you know my name now. i mean, with all this twinkie talk, i thought everybody had forgotten about me. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany.

tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i'm in total control because i can trade tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i use their global research to get an edge. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 their equity ratings show me how schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 rates specific foreign stocks tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 based on things like fundamentals, momentum and risk. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i also have access to independent tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 firms like ned davis research tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and economist intelligence unit. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 plus, i can talk to their global specialists 24/7. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and trade in my global account commission-free tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 through march 2013. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 best part... no jet lag. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-711-5510 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and a global specialist tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 will help you get started today. i have obligations. cute tobligations, but obligations.g. i need to rethink the core of my portfolio.

what i really need is sleep. introducing the ishares core, building blocks for the heart of your portfolio. find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. ishares by blackrock. call 1-800-ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. read and consider it carefully before investing. risk includes possible loss of principal.

i love this. if you google bermuda tax shelter, you probably get google as the top result. >> indeed. well, news today that google is using bermuda to its tax advantage. and in a very big way. the internet giant is steering $10 billion in overseas profits

in the islands nation. therefore avoiding about $2 billion in taxes worldwide. guess what, it is all legal. it benefits the company's bottom line. but opens the company up for criticism. let's bring in ben schacter. saying it's the fiduciary duty that google has to their shareholders. while david callahan says such strategies could hurt the brand. great to have you with us. ben, let me get to you today. we'll get into the ethics in a second. but you say it is good for shareholders. >> i think it's what they have to do. it's their fiduciary duty to protect shareholders and pay as low a tax rate as they legally can. and in this case, that is what they're doing. >> but ethically it feels a little dirty, doesn't it? if all these american companies are hiding their revenues elsewhere. >> i think this is what they have to do. they have legions of advisers, tax attorneys, et cetera.

they're telling them what they have to do by rule of the law. if the law is to be changed. obviously they're going to have to go along with that. for now they're going what they need to do. >> look, it's legal. we all know that. they're not going anything wrong legally. what about ethically? >> the idea they have to do this is just wrong. plenty of companies do not use these foreign subsidiaries, do not engage in this shady accounting. so much for don't be evil. i think this is kind of disgraceful that at a time when the u.s. and all these other advance countries face these massive fiscal challenges, you have google sidestepping its taxes. and by the way, it's not -- we're not 100% sure that this is completely legal. i mean, remember. google paid fines to india this year. it's been fined by turkey. it's been investigated by european countries. google has enough problems without this kind of investigations on its tax issues. >> david, you say you're not sure it's legal, right?

but should it be made outright illegal? >> i think it should be illegal. i think this is a tax loophole. the obvious solution is to get rid of deferral of taxes on foreign profits. when you make profits overseas, you should be taxed when you make them. the obama administration had a pretty good proposal to crack down on this stuff back in 2009. never went any place. and that's not surprising given how much money is raised from google. >> what i would say is it is their fiduciary duty to pay a low tax rate. that's what the law says. that's what they have to do. i believe that's what they are doing in this case. >> you know, they talked in the past in washington about a moratorium of some kind to allow companies to repatuate the funds they have overseas. would that satisfy what you're talking about here? >> no -- we need real systemic

reform. fiduciary responsibility. google has a brand as one of the good guys. if irt starts to tarnish that brand, that's bad for shareholders long-term. and i think this tarnishes its brand. >> what if we saw a lowering -- it's not on the table obviously. but in theory land, what if we saw a lowering of the corporate tax rate? would that bring an end to this? >> i don't know if it's necessarily a lowering of the actual rate. what is called for is simplifying the structure, letting people know what the rules are across the board. we're singling out google here but there are many that are using these rules. they're all basically trying to understand how to play by the rules. if you simplify the structure, then everyone will have to do the same returns. >> all right. gentlemen, good to see you both. thank you for your thoughts today on a thorny issue for some

people i know. heading toward the close. got about 25 minutes left in the trading session. we are moving but not by a lot here. this is a wait and see market ahead of the fed meeting this week. dow up 34 points right now. coming up next, experts telling you how to protect yourself money heading towards the proverbial fiscal cliff. >> let's hope not. and after the bell, the fiscal cliff debate takes a dark turn to the dreaded death tax. that's right. not even the grim reaper can escape the fiscal cliff. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start.

our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. another day where the markets are waiting for some clear sign on something. whether it's the fiscal cliff, the fed meeting. what are the proceed right now? >> we've got bob from s&p capital iq. steven wood and gordon shallop. great to have you all on the show. you normally get the priority of speaking first. what are you doing right now? >> right now we're anticipating for volatility. we knew it was going to be a

volatile fourth quarter. there's a lot of policy induced volatility. that said, the economy in the united states has not changed that much. it's grinding along. that recovery we've been talking about for a long time. so it's measurably positive, not robustly positive. that's kind of doing battle with just about offsetting some of the policy risk. >> the fear is all that changes if we go over the cliff. >> it would. right now the forecast is there's some compromise. there's a short-term compromise. they buy time. and they use that to get the silhouette of a grand bargain. if they use the time well, the markets could like that. if we do go off the cliff, that's 8% of gdp. >> what's your expectation, bob? >> we put out a research saying the fiscal cliff was going to consume investors' attention until the year end and possibly the first quarter of 2013 if the negotiations get postponed temporarily. everybody debated the fiscal

cliff as if it's an appropriations bill. really it's fiscal tightening. you have to ask yourself what's going to offset? policy makers from washington can get it wrong and tighten too much. the economy looks -- >> are they likely to tighten too much? is that palatable to do now? >> all the signals -- the debate is occurring in the public arena right now. looks like pure politics. we haven't seen a sound compromise solution yet be put on the table. but then again there's weeks to go. so you have to wait and see. >> we want to make some regards on deal or no deal. what would you advise we do right now? >> i can tell you the trend of what we're seeing here. it smells like a santa claus rally. i wouldn't be surprised to see this thing spike maybe 50 more points higher on the s&p. you know, one thing that might upset that would be if the fed

came up with some sort of surprise they're going to stop printing money for all the bonds they're repurchasing. but i don't think that's going to happen. so i think they're going to come up with a resolution. they're going to continue the policies and see a santa claus rally as they start to tighten up of the light volume here and squeeze them pretty hard. >> how do you ride that high if we do get a santa claus rally? in which sector with stocks? where are you backing here? >> certainly, listen. rising tide lifts all boats. obviously you can sit there and say i want to go after the ones that's been depressed. you can talk about utilities. but really what you're talking about is it's not going to be sector related. it's going to be across all asset classes. and you'll see this thing be taken into the closing bell on n new year's eve. >> does the cliff matter as much as it would in the past since we're all focusing on the fiscal policies in washington rather than the monetary policies? >> i think so. as the ber nan key luncheon.

we're at a 0% interest rate environment until 2013. and after, they will still be at that point. >> the reason i ask. wednesday they've got the new announcement. operation twist which has kept rates low. >> and they'll probably extend. >> you think they'll extend that. will the market respond though? >> i think that allows the market then to price what's going to happen on the fiscal side. fiscal tightening, there's a responsibility. in europe they're trying to shrink their way into growth. i don't think that's going to work. in the united states we have to have short-term balance stimulus and longer term very controlled ratcheted down austerity. if that does happen, you could set the backdrop for a solid economy. >> what would you buy here right now? >> the discussions we're having with our clients is that they shouldn't be taking any more credit risks than they're comfortable with. everything can change very

quickly if the politicians fail to come up with a responsible solution to this. foremost, you shouldn't be taking excess credit risk right now. if we slip into a recession, there's a lot of money that flows in to dividend stocks here. with the potential downside if the environment deteriorates. >> some sound advice. would you bet the market is going to end higher or lower at the end of next year. >> the market clearly expects resolution. it's fairly well behaved. it's trading at an appropriate multiple. forward earnings expectations are actually declining. the beginning of october fourth quarter earnings were expected to be up 10%. you're seeing a sobering of expectations. the market expects a resolution. i would have a hedge in my portfolio with maybe not as severe a credit exposure. >> buy the sell the fact there may be -- >> hope for the best but prepare for the worst. >> thank you all. see you guys. thank you for joining us.

>> santa claus a since he's apparently going to have a part in this rally. thank you, everybody. still moving higher. the dow's up 35 points as we head towards the close with about 15 minutes left. and after today's close we have just 13 1/2 trading days left this year. up next our pros lay out ways to save money heading into the final sessions of the year. but careful what predictions you make. 2012 predictions that did not come true. number five is the rush of gold bulls calling for the metal to hit $2,000 an ounce here. >> we still have 13 1/2 trading days left. >> it only went up about as high as $1800. we'll have more of our unfulfilled predictions coming up. [ male announcer ] with wells fargo advisors envision planning process,

it's easy to follow the progress you're making toward all your financial goals. a quick glance, and you can see if you're on track. when the conversation turns to knowing where you stand, turn to us.

wells fargo advisors. look this isn't my first christmas. these deals all seem great at the time... but later... [ shirt ] merry christmas, everybody! not so much. ho ho ho! this isn't that kind of deal. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office.

if you want to buy twinkies, time is running out. we don't mean a package of the tasty tweet. we mean the company. kay kay kayla tausche joins us with that. >> today the hostess bankers have been contacted by more than

150 possible buyers. it's suspected only a few dozen will be credible and committed candidates. but for now it's a feeding frenzy to get in the game. financial responsers like the owners of pabst blue ribbon, regional bakeries. even individuals, major underdogs in the process are vying to be taken seriously. case in point of the widespread interest, one of the potential bidders declared his interest last week in a handwritten note filed with bankruptcy court. whatever works. i just hope that the bakers can recurse it. but we have twin tech entrepreneurs from florida who are putting together investors. as for what they're competing for, it will be a brand by brand fire sale. wonder bread has drawn some of the most interest early in the process. the unit holds in roughly $500 million a year. far more lucrative than twinkies who sees less 70 million bucks.

if you can believe that. >> i do not. how many of us still eat twinkies. >> i don't eat twinkies. >> i'm eating more now that i've been covering this story. but it's all in the name of due diligence. >> you're doing research. >> thank you, kayla. and by the way, for an oscar winning actor, this has got to be a highlight of his career. >> absolutely. an oscar-winning performance i would say. >> jamie foxx donning a ding dong suit this weekend on "saturday night live" to make the case that it's not just the twinkie that's at stake. watch. >> it seems like you might be a little upset by all the attention twinkie is getting. >> y'all act like twinkie is the only one with a delicious filling. i hate to be like this. because i fall back on the chocolateness. this is snack profiling, man. it's snack profiling. >> all i can say is it takes a confident man and a man who's confident in his acting

abilities to don a ding dong suit. >> and jamie foxx has never been accused of being not confident in himself. he could probably be -- well, one of the few oscar-winning actors who could pull off something like that. it has captured our imagination. but it is still a nostalgia thing. we remember as kids growing up on the tasty treats. when was the last we ate them as adults? we don't. that's why the business fell off. >> i guess there's more awareness of healthy eating. maybe they should put mum beans in and that'll get the kids to eat them. >> first we'd have to explain what that was. >> coming up next, what have we got? >> the closing countdown. >> then tomorrow all day on cnbc we have a very special show. maria's going to be at the white house for coverage. and on the "closing bell," we're going to ask how d.c. can rise

above as we sneak towards the edge of the cliff. >> we're back with much more for the monday edition of this. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] feeling like a shadow of your former self? c'mon, michael! get in the game! [ male announcer ] don't have the hops for hoops with your buddies? lost your appetite for romance?

and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, forty-five or older, may have low t. so talk to your doctor about low t. hey, michael! [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. hi! how are you? [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt.com. [ hs ] hey! ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] the mercedes-benz winter event is back, with the perfect vehicle that's just right for you, no matter which list you're on.

[ santa ] ho, ho, ho, ho! [ male announcer ] lease a 2013 ml350 for $599 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. she also likes to ride her bike. she knows the potential for making or losing money can pop up anytime. that's why she trades with the leader in mobile trading. so she's always ready to take action, no matter how wily... or weird... or wonderfully the market's behaving... which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade.

about four and a half minutes left in the trading session. you know about these two model portfolios that our research team put together regarding the fiscal cliff. there's one that would do well if we go over the cliff. and there's one that would do well if we avoid the cliff. essentially they're a basket of exchange traded funds. some risk on if we go over the cliff. risk off. so let me show you something here. after the election, the risk that the market basically these two portfolios are traching each other are perfect mirror images here. they were betting at this point we were going to go over the cliff. in other words the -- over the cliff portfolio was the outperformer until today. they have crossed. so now it's gone lower. we hit the cliff and avoid it is going higher at this point. two things to watch for this

week. we got all that treasury paper coming to market here. the yield has moved higher. but we'll see what happens there. then the other thing is natural gas at a two-month low and moving lower because of all the warm weather in the markets now. nat gas subpoena in fact we come off this low here. with the market up 20 points here, what do you make of this -- of our model portfolio fiscal cliff portfolios? >> i was very surprised that it crossed today. i mean, with very little activity, very little movement on pretty much any stock that it crossed today. i was surprised with that. i'm becoming a little more convinced that we're not going to have any resolution at all. i thought there might have been a compromise. i think the market has been reacting as ihere's not going to be anything. and we're going to have to deal with everything starting in the new year. i'm going to lean more towards that than anything. i'm surprised with that chart. >> do you dread coming to work in the morning?

>> no i love this. >> even having to watch every line out of the politicians? >> i hate listening to any politician because i think most of them are full of it, but we don't necessarily listen to the politicians. we listen to what the stocks say. and when we're talking to our clients, our clients are not as much concerned with what they say but what their portfolios are looking like. they're the followers, unfortunately. and they follow what's happening in their stocks. >> what are the stocks saying to you? >> right now they're saying absolutely nothing. which i think is almost leading me to believe there's not going to be any resolution to this in the new year. we're going to fall off the cliff and i don't think it's going to be the worst in the world. >> i don't think a lot of people believe you. >> we accept that. see you in a few minutes as we get ready for the second hour. we do have the fed meeting wednesday. is the market waiting for that? does it matter what bernanke says about monetary policy since we're so focused on fiscal policy now? >> it's always important.

but this is a week where the next two weeks we're not concerned about monetary policy. i don't think there's going to be anything ground breaking out of this. going forward it's still about what we're going to solve. >> we've got this kind of activity now for the next couple weeks. until we get a clearer signal out of washington. >> yes. and i think we're going to see this narrow trading range. if there's no resolution, i think the market might react negatively. but i think that's a short-term negative term. but i do think that's a negative possibility. and i do think there's a possibility nothing will come out. >> meantime, the economic reports coming out starting to soften a bit here. do you make of that? >> it's not surprising. i don't think the economy is strong enough to have continued quarterly increases. i think we're going to see this probably for the next six months. you're going to have some good reports. jobless claims will probably get better going fod.